First of all, it depends on what difficulty mode your friend plays. This will help you estimate how long the pad will last. Generally, Beginner --> 1 - 2 months, Light --> 1 month, Standard --> 2 - 3 weeks, Heavy --> 1 week. Next, don't expect a soft pad to last very long at all, as you can see above. In my opinion, you should give your friend $$ and tell him to save up for a metal pad (just my opinion). You should, however, get him a soft pad if he doesn't have one yet. Go with the Ignition pad with the zipper. That one will probably out last the other pads. Happy birthday to your friend!
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All I got this Christmas was a dick in a box.